In the first quarter of 2025, the market size of China's aluminum die-casting parts industry is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% to 8%. This growth is mainly driven by the following factors:
1. New energy automobile structural demand outbreak
The first quarter of new energy automobile production reached 2.8 million units, up 30% year-on-year, driving the demand for aluminum alloy die casting parts accounted for 65% of the total scale of the industry. 65%. Among them, the body integration die casting, battery pack frame, electric drive system shell and other core components contribute to the main increment.
Vehicle lightweight trend accelerated, single-vehicle aluminum alloy usage from 160 kg in 2024 to 185 kg, some high-end models exceeded 220 kg.
2. Industrial demand spillover
energy storage equipment (such as photovoltaic inverter shell, energy storage battery bracket) demand increased by 25% year-on-year, communication base station aluminum alloy radiator orders increased by 18%, becoming a non The main growth point in the automotive field.Aerospace and rail transportation field of high-precision aluminum die casting parts procurement increased, the order amount accounted for the first time exceeded 8%.
3. Raw materials and capacity linkage effect
Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity release accelerated, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and other places new electrolytic aluminum projects contribute quarterly capacity increment of about 500,000 tons to ease regional supply tension.
Recycled aluminum utilization rate increased to 38% (32% in 2024), reducing corporate raw material costs by about 5% -7%.
As for the market pattern, the main decent features are as follows:
1. Concentration continues to increase
The combined market share of the top five enterprises rose to 34% from 29% in the same period of 2024, and the head enterprises through the Technical barriers and scale effects further squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized manufacturers.
Industry differentiation intensified: 6000T or more ultra-large die-casting machine retains the top 10% of the enterprise occupies 70% of the high-end orders (such as integrated body structure parts, multi-cavity precision mold products).
2. The industrial chain vertical integration speed
Upstream resource control: about 45% of the die casting enterprise and bauxite supplier signed a long-term agreement, locking the cost of raw materials; 20% of the enterprise investment in recycled aluminum recycling network, build a closed loop supply chain.
Downstream depth binding: head manufacturers and new energy vehicle enterprises to jointly develop customized die casting, using “r&d + mass production” bundled mode, order cycle extended to 3-5 years.
3. Regional cluster effect highlights
Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta region relying on the advantages of the automotive industry chain, contributing to 65% of the national die casting output value; the central and western (such as Chongqing, Wuhan) through the tariff subsidy policy to attract production capacity to transfer, the regional production capacity accounted for 22%.
Technology trends, technology and intelligent manufacturing continue to dominate the industry's technological progress, at the same time, green energy saving and environmental protection is always the theme.
1. Ultra-large die-casting technology breakthroughs
9000T and above die-casting machine installed capacity increased by 45% year-on-year, to promote the integration of die casting from the rear bottom plate to extend to the front compartment, battery tray and other complex structures, the production cycle shortened by 30%! The production cycle was shortened by 30%.
Mold life to 120,000 die times (80,000 die times in 2024), reducing unit costs by about 15%.
2. Intelligent manufacturing penetration rate increase
Industry digital transformation investment increased by 28% year-on-year, die casting link AI defect detection system penetration rate of more than 50%, yield rate increased to 93%.
Flexible production line accounted for 35%, to support multi-species small batch order fast switching.
3. Green manufacturing system molding
Carbon emissions intensity fell 12% year-on-year, the head of the enterprise through waste heat recovery, hydrogen melting and other technologies to reduce energy consumption.
Policy-driven, recycled aluminum raw material certification system is gradually improved, 30% of the die casting parts to obtain international low-carbon certification (such as UL ECOLOGO).
challenges and opportunities: structural adjustment under the industry differentiation
Aluminum price volatility risk: LME aluminum prices in the range of 1950-2150 U.S. dollars / ton oscillation, the cost of corporate hedging increased; Overcapacity concerns: low-end die casting (such as traditional fuel vehicle transmission shell) capacity utilization rate slipped to 65 The capacity utilization rate of low-end die casting (such as traditional fuel vehicle gearbox shell) slumped to 65%, and some small and medium-sized enterprises face transformation or elimination.
Global supply chain reconstruction: China's die casting exports increased by 18% year-on-year, European car companies to accelerate the procurement of locally produced aluminum die casting module;
Technology substitution space: magnesium-aluminum alloys, high strength and toughness of die casting material research and development breakthroughs, potential alternative steel market size of 120 billion yuan. 120 billion yuan.
2025 annual industry scale is expected to exceed 180 billion yuan, growth logic from “capacity expansion” to "technology premium + resource synergy The logic of growth has shifted from “capacity expansion” to “technology premium + resource synergy”. Enterprises with the following capabilities will dominate the market:
Technology iteration capabilities: mastering the design of ultra-large molds, materials - process - equipment synergistic optimization technology;
Resource integration capabilities: building a whole chain of cost advantages from recycled aluminum recycling to customized customer service;
Globalization layout capabilities: establishing overseas production bases in Southeast Asia, Mexico and other places, and establishing a global production base in Mexico, Ability of globalization layout: establishing overseas production bases in Southeast Asia, Mexico and other places to avoid trade barriers.
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